International Football & It’s Degree of Predictability

Chris Kisby takes a look at some tips which may help you out during the World Cup

It just simply cannot be said that the beautiful game is easy to predict.

Although the top sides of the major leagues are there for a reason, on any given week we as fans, neutrals or backers are subject to shock or freak results.  The English F.A Cup competition, for some unknown reason, throws unlikely results up in heavy numbers hence it’s now ‘magical’ status.

Meanwhile the lower echelons of domestic football sees teams beat each other week in week out with monotonous regularity. The formbook tends to go out of the window leaving fans with heads in hands and punters with worthless slips.

International football does offer some reprieve for the betting man however.

Now of course, it isn’t a giveaway. Bookmakers offer odds over cautiously when it comes to international football, but this is because, generally, outcomes of matches are to a large degree easier to predict than domestic ones.

It’s no secret that the standard of international football has sunk in recent years. As the importance of club football competition has increased, the commitment of players to national teams is not as intense, especially in the friendly matches which so many top managers believe are pointless – to such an extent they are often reluctant to release their stars at all.

The levels of effort and desire amongst top players in national teams is low in friendly matches, as they are more worried about getting injured. This brings me on to the first of a few quick tips to make good returns from international football.

1) In friendly matches between the worlds best teams (e.g. top ten rank) bet on the draw.

2) Spread bet on score lines when there is a clear gulf in class between two sides in a competitive match (e.g. Spain vs. Azerbaijan: select 4-0, 5-0 and 6-0 – likely to be around 5/1 each)

3) Accumulate on group winners (e.g. in qualifying) instead of on the matches themselves – the odds will be bigger and the outcomes are just as predictable.

4) Home advantage is very important – it usually pays to side with the home team even if they are evenly matched ability wise with the opposition.

5) Follow world rankings closely. They are based on a coefficient formula taken from past results. It is very rare for a team 15 or so places away from another to obtain any kind of positive result.

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